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Economist warns property market about to turn

Home buyers and investors are being warned not to over capitalise on property as indicators show the market is about to turn.

Saturday, May 15th 2004, 11:10PM

by The Landlord

PSIS chief executive Dr Girol Karacaoglu said all indications pointed to a property market which had reached its peak across the country.

He warned about buying a property now for investment or over-capitalising on home mortgages.

Dr Karacaoglu looked to three key indicators to predict the turn. The number of days or weeks a property was on the market had risen; prices had stabilised; and rising interest rates.

"In the next year or two I think the property market will slow. The driver is the rising interest rates. . .


"The only debate is whether the market will come down or stabilise."

Dr Karacaoglu said people with mortgages on houses around the $400,000 mark would feel the pinch of interest rates more than those homes valued between $100,000-$300,000.

Dr Karacaoglu said first home buyers should still try and get on the property ladder. But those looking at a second rental property or investing should be more cautious.

"Investors are getting in at the wrong time."

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Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
AIA - Back My Build 3.34 - - -
AIA - Go Home Loans 6.14 4.75 5.25 5.29
ANZ 6.04 5.59 6.09 6.19
ANZ Blueprint to Build 7.39 - - -
ANZ Good Energy - - - 1.00
ANZ Special - 4.99 5.49 5.59
ASB Bank 6.04 ▲4.99 ▲5.45 ▲5.45
ASB Better Homes Top Up - - - 1.00
Avanti Finance - Near Prime 6.60 - - -
Avanti Finance - Specialised 7.75 - - -
Basecorp Finance 6.35 - - -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
BNZ - Mortgage One 6.19 - - -
BNZ - Rapid Repay 6.19 - - -
BNZ - Std 6.09 ▲4.99 ▲5.45 ▲5.45
BNZ - TotalMoney 6.19 - - -
CFML 321 Loans 4.20 - - -
CFML Home Loans 6.30 - - -
CFML Prime Loans 6.45 - - -
CFML Standard Loans 7.20 - - -
China Construction Bank 6.44 4.85 4.95 4.95
China Construction Bank Special 6.44 5.85 5.95 5.95
Co-operative Bank - First Home Special - 4.74 5.29 5.59
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Co-operative Bank - Owner Occ 5.34 4.84 5.39 5.69
Co-operative Bank - Standard 5.34 5.34 5.89 6.19
Credit Union Auckland 7.70 - - -
First Credit Union Special - 5.09 5.49 -
First Credit Union Standard 6.49 5.69 6.09 -
FMT 7.15 - - -
FMT Development 7.90 - - -
Heartland Bank - Online 5.80 5.89 - -
Heartland Bank - Reverse Mortgage 7.99 - - -
Heretaunga Building Society 6.50 5.50 5.65 -
ICBC 5.39 4.49 4.99 5.25
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Kainga Ora 5.79 4.59 4.95 5.19
Kainga Ora - First Home Buyer Special - - - -
Kiwibank ▲8.50 ▲7.49 ▲7.49 ▲7.69
Kiwibank - Offset 6.00 - - -
Kiwibank Special ▲6.00 ▲4.95 ▲5.39 ▲5.49
Liberty 6.65 6.55 6.22 6.20
Nelson Building Society ▲6.79 ▲4.99 ▲5.49 -
Pepper Money Near Prime 6.55 - - -
Pepper Money Prime 5.99 - - -
Pepper Money Specialist 8.00 - - -
SBS Bank 5.84 5.39 5.89 5.89
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
SBS Bank Special - 4.69 5.29 5.29
SBS Construction lending for FHB 3.74 - - -
SBS FirstHome Combo 3.29 4.29 - -
SBS FirstHome Combo - - - -
SBS Unwind reverse equity 7.99 - - -
TSB Bank ▲6.84 ▲5.79 ▲6.29 ▲6.49
TSB Special ▲6.04 ▲4.99 ▲5.49 ▲5.69
Unity First Home Buyer special - 4.15 - -
Unity Special ▲6.04 4.80 5.29 -
Unity Standard ▲6.04 5.60 6.29 -
Wairarapa Building Society 6.15 ▲5.15 ▲5.65 -
Lender Flt 1yr 2yr 3yr
Westpac 6.14 5.59 6.05 5.95
Westpac Choices Everyday 6.24 - - -
Westpac Offset 6.14 - - -
Westpac Special - 4.99 5.45 5.35
Median 6.19 4.99 5.49 5.59

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